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2024 United States Senate election in Missouri

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2024 United States Senate election in Missouri
← 2018
November 5, 2024
2030 →
 
Nominee Josh Hawley Lucas Kunce
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,651,907 1,243,728
Percentage 55.57% 41.84%
Hawley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Kunce:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Josh Hawley
Republican

 Elected U.S. senator

Josh Hawley
Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Republican incumbent Josh Hawley was re-elected to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Lucas Kunce. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.[1]

Hawley was the favorite in the polls throughout the cycle due to the state's Republican lean, though some polls showed a close race.[2][3] Kunce, who had previously run in 2022, losing narrowly in the Democratic primaries to Trudy Busch Valentine, was seen as a strong candidate who outpaced Hawley in fundraising for much of the race and outspent him in advertising.[4][5][6]

Hawley ultimately won re-election with a comfortable 55.57% of the vote to Kunce's 41.84%, improving his 2018 margin by around 8 points. Despite his loss, Kunce outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris by 2 points, while Hawley underperformed Donald Trump by nearly 3 points, making the race somewhat closer than the concurrent presidential election.[7][8]

Background

[edit]

From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.[9]

Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1960, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996.[9]

In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.[10]

The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill back in 2012. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.[11]

Most pollsters categorized this race as safe for the Republican Party.[12][13][14][15]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Josh Hawley

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Josh Hawley (R) $22,492,767 $17,267,201 $5,701,081
Source: Federal Election Commission[19]

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Josh Hawley (incumbent) 607,602 100.0%
Total votes 607,602 100.0%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Lucas Kunce
U.S. representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Municipal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Karla May
State representatives
Local officials
Wesley Bell (withdrawn)
State officials
State representatives
Municipal officials
Local officials

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
December Harmon (D) $16,524[f] $15,578 $945
Lucas Kunce (D) $11,193,778 $6,959,981 $4,241,078
Karla May (D) $53,962 $48,314 $5,647
Source: Federal Election Commission[19]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[g]		 Margin
of error		 Wesley
Bell		 Mita
Biswas		 December
Harmon		 Lucas
Kunce		 Karla
May		 Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)[66][A] July 10–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 3.8% – 1% 4% 39% 10% 46%
Remington Research Group[67][A] July 12–13, 2023 661 (LV) ± 3.9% 24% – – 31% 10% 35%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Kunce
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  May
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Lucas Kunce 255,775 67.64%
Democratic Karla May 87,908 23.25%
Democratic December Harmon 26,804 7.09%
Democratic Mita Biswas 7,647 2.02%
Total votes 378,134 100.0%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Libertarian primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian W.C. Young 2,437 100.0%
Total votes 2,437 100.0%

Other candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Nathan Kline (Green), executive assistant[68]
  • Jared Young (Better Party), payroll services executive[69]

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jared Young (BP) $364,377[h] $253,727 $110,650
Source: Federal Election Commission[19]

General election

[edit]

The two candidates participated in two debates—one alongside third-party opponents and a second one-on-one televised event. Both debates were marked by frequent attacks. Hawley criticized Kunce over an accidental shooting involving a reporter at a campaign event and his refusal to endorse a presidential candidate. Kunce countered by attacking Hawley's involvement in objecting to the certification of the 2020 election and his opposition to abortion rights. 2024 Missouri Amendment 3, which was concurrently on the ballot, passed and legalized abortion in Missouri.

Despite the contentious exchanges, the candidates found some common ground on border security and opposition to deploying U.S. troops to the Middle East.[70][71][72]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[12] Solid R November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[13] Solid R November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Safe R November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[73] Likely R August 26, 2024
Elections Daily[15] Safe R May 4, 2023
CNalysis[74] Solid R November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[75] Likely R August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[76] Safe R October 23, 2024
538[77] Solid R October 26, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Josh Hawley (R)

Individuals

Organizations

  • Missouri Farm Bureau PAC[79]
Lucas Kunce (D)

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Newspapers

Organizations

Individuals

Jared Young (B)

U.S. senators

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Josh
Hawley (R)		 Lucas
Kunce (D)		 Undecided
[i]		 Margin
FiveThirtyEight[88] through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 51.3% 41.8% 6.9% Hawley +9.5%
TheHill/DDHQ[89] through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 52.6% 44.5% 2.9% Hawley +8.1%
Average 52.0% 43.2% 4.8% Hawley +8.8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[g]		 Margin
of error		 Josh
Hawley (R)		 Lucas
Kunce (D)		 Other Undecided
Research Co.[90] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 52% 41% 3%[j] 4%
ActiVote[91] October 6–27, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 56% 44% – –
GQR (D)[92][B] October 23–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 46% – 5%
Emerson College[93][C] October 22–23, 2024 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 41% 2%[k] 7%
ActiVote[94] September 1 – October 1, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54% 46% – –
Emerson College[95][D] September 12–13, 2024 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 40% 1% 8%
Change Research[96] September 11–13, 2024 1,237 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 41% 4% 9%
GQR Research (D)[97][E] September 6–12, 2024 645 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 46% 2% 2%
52% 48% – –
Remington Research Group (R)[98][A] September 4–5, 2024 816 (LV) – 52% 37% – 11%
YouGov/Saint Louis University[99] August 8–16, 2024 900 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 42% – 4%
Emerson College[100] June 17–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 38% 5% 10%
Remington Research Group (R)[101][A] March 6–8, 2024 713 (LV) ± 3.9% 53% 39% – 8%
Emerson College[102] January 23–28, 2024 1,830 (RV) ± 2.2% 43% 30% 7% 20%
Show Me Victories (D)[103] October 26–31, 2023 407 (RV) ± 4.9% 46% 42% 4% 8%
Emerson College[104] October 1–4, 2023 491 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 32% 5% 17%
GQR Research (D)[105][E] August 16–19, 2023 863 (LV) ± 3.3% 44% 43% – 12%
Hypothetical polling

Josh Hawley vs. Wesley Bell

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[g]		 Margin
of error		 Josh
Hawley (R)		 Wesley
Bell (D)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College[104] October 1–4, 2023 491 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 34% 5% 17%

Debate

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Missouri debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic Libertarian Green Better
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Hawley Kunce Young Kline Young
1 Sep. 20, 2024 Missouri Press Association David Lieb YouTube P P N P P

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Missouri[106]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Josh Hawley (incumbent) 1,651,907 55.57% Increase 4.19
Democratic Lucas Kunce 1,243,728 41.84% Decrease 3.73
Libertarian W.C. Young 35,671 1.20% Increase 0.08
Better Party Jared Young 21,111 0.71% N/A
Green Nathan Kline 20,123 0.68% Increase 0.16
Write-in 19 0.00% Steady
Total votes 2,972,559 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By county

[edit]
County[107] Josh Hawley
Republican		 Lucas Kunce
Democratic		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 6,589 64.76% 3,307 32.50% 279 2.74% 3,282 32.26% 10,175
Andrew 7,002 72.04% 2,490 25.62% 228 2.35% 4,512 46.42% 9,720
Atchison 2,052 78.23% 479 18.26% 92 3.51% 1,573 59.97% 2,623
Audrain 7,172 69.11% 2,893 27.88% 312 3.01% 4,279 41.24% 10,377
Barry 12,423 77.72% 3,169 19.83% 392 2.45% 9,254 57.90% 15,984
Barton 4,958 83.81% 836 14.13% 122 2.06% 4,122 69.68% 5,916
Bates 6,100 74.15% 1,924 23.39% 203 2.47% 4,176 50.76% 8,227
Benton 7,966 74.52% 2,468 23.09% 256 2.39% 5,498 51.43% 10,690
Bollinger 5,244 85.94% 750 12.29% 108 1.77% 4,494 73.65% 6,102
Boone 37,557 42.05% 49,327 55.22% 2,439 2.73% -11,770 -13.18% 89,323
Buchanan 21,451 60.61% 13,017 36.78% 922 2.61% 8,434 23.83% 35,390
Butler 14,267 80.60% 3,107 17.55% 326 1.84% 11,160 63.05% 17,700
Caldwell 3,506 75.09% 1,036 22.19% 127 2.72% 2,470 52.90% 4,669
Callaway 14,110 66.38% 6,598 31.04% 550 2.59% 7,512 35.34% 21,258
Camden 18,505 73.19% 6,294 24.89% 484 1.91% 12,211 48.30% 25,283
Cape Girardeau 28,864 72.26% 10,089 25.26% 992 2.48% 18,775 47.00% 39,945
Carroll 3,395 76.09% 955 21.40% 112 2.51% 2,440 54.68% 4,462
Carter 2,403 85.06% 379 13.42% 43 1.52% 2,024 71.65% 2,825
Cass 36,053 61.31% 21,081 35.85% 1,674 2.85% 14,972 25.46% 58,808
Cedar 5,649 79.59% 1,260 17.75% 189 2.66% 4,389 61.83% 7,098
Chariton 2,887 71.55% 1,052 26.07% 96 2.38% 1,835 45.48% 4,035
Christian 37,040 73.28% 12,465 24.66% 1,040 2.06% 24,575 48.62% 50,545
Clark 2,539 77.62% 617 18.86% 115 3.52% 1,922 58.76% 3,271
Clay 63,337 49.02% 62,452 48.33% 3,421 2.65% 885 0.68% 129,210
Clinton 7,614 68.55% 3,217 28.96% 276 2.48% 4,397 39.59% 11,107
Cole 25,034 62.75% 13,896 34.83% 966 2.42% 11,138 27.92% 39,896
Cooper 6,028 68.60% 2,566 29.20% 193 2.20% 3,462 39.40% 8,787
Crawford 8,220 76.71% 2,305 21.51% 191 1.78% 5,915 55.20% 10,716
Dade 3,284 79.29% 770 18.59% 88 2.12% 2,514 60.70% 4,142
Dallas 6,504 77.72% 1,645 19.66% 219 2.62% 4,859 58.07% 8,368
Daviess 2,934 75.04% 864 22.10% 112 2.86% 2,070 52.94% 3,910
DeKalb 3,610 75.79% 1,026 21.54% 127 2.67% 2,584 54.25% 4,763
Dent 5,662 80.62% 1,181 16.82% 180 2.56% 4,481 63.80% 7,023
Douglas 5,866 81.59% 1,165 16.20% 159 2.21% 4,701 65.38% 7,190
Dunklin 7,786 79.00% 1,794 18.20% 276 2.80% 5,992 60.80% 9,856
Franklin 36,907 67.22% 16,597 30.23% 1,400 2.55% 20,310 36.99% 54,904
Gasconade 5,976 75.45% 1,808 22.83% 136 1.72% 4,168 52.63% 7,920
Gentry 2,450 75.27% 735 22.58% 70 2.15% 1,715 52.69% 3,255
Greene 82,303 57.38% 57,542 40.11% 3,600 2.51% 24,761 17.26% 143,445
Grundy 3,420 78.37% 869 19.91% 75 1.72% 2,551 58.46% 4,364
Harrison 3,105 81.52% 648 17.01% 56 1.47% 2,457 64.51% 3,809
Henry 7,617 70.57% 2,856 26.46% 321 2.97% 4,761 44.11% 10,794
Hickory 3,818 75.38% 1,111 21.93% 136 2.69% 2,707 53.45% 5,065
Holt 1,873 80.84% 401 17.31% 43 1.86% 1,472 63.53% 2,317
Howard 3,262 66.60% 1,513 30.89% 123 2.51% 1,749 35.71% 4,898
Howell 14,932 79.65% 3,414 18.21% 400 2.13% 11,518 61.44% 18,746
Iron 3,289 74.24% 1,014 22.89% 127 2.87% 2,275 51.35% 4,430
Jackson 117,054 37.10% 189,008 59.91% 9,410 2.98% -71,954 -22.81% 315,472
Jasper 38,129 71.33% 13,518 25.29% 1,810 3.39% 24,611 46.04% 53,457
Jefferson 73,111 62.09% 41,469 35.22% 3,162 2.69% 31,642 26.87% 117,742
Johnson 15,269 65.25% 7,462 31.89% 670 2.86% 7,807 33.36% 23,401
Knox 1,406 80.16% 307 17.50% 41 2.34% 1,099 62.66% 1,754
Laclede 13,600 79.91% 3,073 18.06% 347 2.04% 10,527 61.85% 17,020
Lafayette 11,895 69.27% 4,927 28.69% 349 2.03% 6,968 40.58% 17,171
Lawrence 14,138 77.58% 3,625 19.89% 460 2.52% 10,513 57.69% 18,223
Lewis 3,460 78.23% 833 18.83% 130 2.94% 2,627 59.39% 4,423
Lincoln 22,811 71.99% 8,071 25.47% 804 2.54% 14,740 46.52% 31,686
Linn 4,028 71.67% 1,424 25.34% 168 2.99% 2,604 46.33% 5,620
Livingston 5,077 74.85% 1,598 23.56% 108 1.59% 3,479 51.29% 6,783
Macon 6,111 78.76% 1,529 19.71% 119 1.53% 4,582 59.05% 7,759
Madison 4,465 78.65% 1,068 18.81% 144 2.54% 3,397 59.84% 5,677
Maries 3,822 80.23% 873 18.32% 69 1.45% 2,949 61.90% 4,764
Marion 9,642 74.21% 3,032 23.34% 318 2.45% 6,610 50.88% 12,992
McDonald 7,620 82.43% 1,428 15.45% 196 2.12% 6,192 66.98% 9,244
Mercer 1,475 83.01% 273 15.36% 29 1.63% 1,202 67.64% 1,777
Miller 10,194 79.36% 2,366 18.42% 286 2.23% 7,828 60.94% 12,846
Mississippi 3,263 74.99% 942 21.65% 146 3.36% 2,321 53.34% 4,351
Moniteau 5,469 75.96% 1,572 21.83% 159 2.21% 3,897 54.13% 7,200
Monroe 3,256 75.56% 962 22.33% 91 2.11% 2,294 53.24% 4,309
Montgomery 4,497 75.68% 1,329 22.37% 116 1.95% 3,168 53.32% 5,942
Morgan 7,243 75.39% 2,138 22.25% 227 2.36% 5,105 53.13% 9,608
New Madrid 5,068 75.80% 1,433 21.43% 185 2.77% 3,635 54.37% 6,686
Newton 22,381 77.23% 5,860 20.22% 739 2.55% 16,521 57.01% 28,980
Nodaway 6,562 68.23% 2,849 29.62% 207 2.15% 3,713 38.60% 9,618
Oregon 3,635 80.01% 786 17.30% 122 2.69% 2,849 62.71% 4,543
Osage 6,337 82.31% 1,257 16.33% 105 1.36% 5,080 65.98% 7,699
Ozark 3,802 80.89% 791 16.83% 107 2.28% 3,011 64.06% 4,700
Pemiscot 3,735 73.22% 1,260 24.70% 106 2.08% 2,475 48.52% 5,101
Perry 7,619 79.62% 1,753 18.32% 197 2.06% 5,866 61.30% 9,569
Pettis 13,134 70.18% 5,101 27.26% 480 2.56% 8,033 42.92% 18,715
Phelps 13,014 67.93% 5,662 29.56% 481 2.51% 7,352 38.38% 19,157
Pike 5,754 74.31% 1,856 23.97% 133 1.72% 3,898 50.34% 7,743
Platte 28,061 48.59% 28,351 49.09% 1,343 2.33% -290 -0.50% 57,755
Polk 12,204 77.38% 3,234 20.51% 333 2.11% 8,970 56.88% 15,771
Pulaski 10,834 70.63% 4,022 26.22% 483 3.15% 6,812 44.41% 15,339
Putnam 1,937 82.53% 341 14.53% 69 2.94% 1,596 68.00% 2,347
Ralls 4,404 77.14% 1,181 20.69% 124 2.17% 3,223 56.45% 5,709
Randolph 7,700 70.55% 2,900 26.57% 315 2.89% 4,800 43.98% 10,915
Ray 7,791 67.50% 3,444 29.84% 307 2.66% 4,347 37.66% 11,542
Reynolds 2,343 78.47% 581 19.46% 62 2.08% 1,762 59.01% 2,986
Ripley 4,739 83.43% 779 13.71% 162 2.85% 3,960 69.72% 5,680
Saline 5,971 64.32% 3,038 32.73% 274 2.95% 2,933 31.60% 9,283
Schuyler 1,513 79.76% 327 17.24% 57 3.00% 1,186 62.52% 1,897
Scotland 1,473 78.77% 347 18.56% 50 2.67% 1,126 60.21% 1,870
Scott 13,488 78.25% 3,409 19.78% 339 1.97% 10,079 58.48% 17,236
Shannon 3,088 78.36% 736 18.68% 117 2.97% 2,352 59.68% 3,941
Shelby 2,535 78.92% 616 19.18% 61 1.90% 1,919 59.74% 3,212
St. Charles 121,368 54.15% 97,175 43.36% 5,573 2.49% 24,193 10.79% 224,116
St. Clair 3,809 76.62% 1,071 21.54% 91 1.83% 2,738 55.08% 4,971
St. Francois 19,573 69.57% 7,899 28.08% 661 2.35% 11,674 41.50% 28,133
St. Louis City 18,068 15.62% 93,919 81.19% 3,685 3.19% -75,851 -65.57% 115,672
St. Louis County 179,628 35.75% 309,428 61.58% 13,438 2.67% -129,800 -25.83% 502,494
Ste. Genevieve 6,415 66.87% 2,982 31.09% 196 2.04% 3,433 35.79% 9,593
Stoddard 11,451 85.23% 1,726 12.85% 258 1.92% 9,725 72.39% 13,435
Stone 14,687 77.49% 3,948 20.83% 319 1.68% 10,739 56.66% 18,954
Sullivan 1,957 80.73% 425 17.53% 42 1.73% 1,532 63.20% 2,424
Taney 20,221 76.28% 5,630 21.24% 658 2.48% 14,591 55.04% 26,509
Texas 9,324 81.45% 1,884 16.46% 240 2.10% 7,440 64.99% 11,448
Vernon 6,778 76.67% 1,835 20.76% 228 2.58% 4,943 55.91% 8,841
Warren 13,858 69.72% 5,579 28.07% 439 2.21% 8,279 41.65% 19,876
Washington 7,648 76.04% 2,183 21.70% 227 2.26% 5,465 54.33% 10,058
Wayne 4,783 83.02% 840 14.58% 138 2.40% 3,943 68.44% 5,761
Webster 15,163 76.99% 4,074 20.69% 457 2.32% 11,089 56.31% 19,694
Worth 848 78.52% 210 19.44% 22 2.04% 638 59.07% 1,080
Wright 7,608 85.06% 1,197 13.38% 139 1.55% 6,411 71.68% 8,944
Total 1,651,907 55.57% 1,243,728 41.84% 76,924 2.59% 408,179 13.73% 2,972,559

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Hawley won six of eight congressional districts.[108]

District Hawley Kunce Representative
1st 19% 77% Cori Bush (118th Congress)
Wesley Bell (119th Congress)
2nd 50% 47% Ann Wagner
3rd 59% 39% Blaine Luetkemeyer (118th Congress)
Bob Onder (119th Congress)
4th 67% 31% Mark Alford
5th 35% 62% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 65% 32% Sam Graves
7th 68% 29% Eric Burlison
8th 73% 24% Jason Smith

Notes

[edit]
  1. ↑ Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters and IAFF 2nd district and Local 2665
  2. ↑ Locals 1, 27, and 63
  3. ↑ Bricklayers Administrative District Council of Missouri and Locals 1 and 15
  4. ↑ Locals 264, 663, and 1290
  5. ↑ Locals 8, 268, 314, 533, and 669
  6. ↑ $6,102 of this total was self-funded by Harmon
  7. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  8. ↑ $245,000 of this total was self-funded by Young
  9. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  10. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  11. ↑ Young (L) with 1%; Kline (G) with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by the Missouri Scout
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by IAFF Local 2665
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Hill
  5. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Kunce's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. ↑ "New poll finds Hawley leading Kunce by wide margin in Missouri Senate race". FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports. October 25, 2024. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  3. ↑ Wiederkehr, Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King, Dhrumil Mehta and Anna (June 28, 2018). "Missouri : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on November 9, 2023. Retrieved November 16, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  4. ↑ "Missouri Primary Election Results". The New York Times. August 2, 2022. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  5. ↑ Hancock, Jason (October 16, 2024). "Democrat Lucas Kunce outraises Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley • Missouri Independent". Missouri Independent. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  6. ↑ Hancock, Jason. "Democrat Lucas Kunce raises twice as much money as incumbent Republican Josh Hawley". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  7. ↑ Baker, Michael. "Presidential election results 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  8. ↑ Riley, Emily. "Senate election results 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  9. 1 2 "Missouri Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin". 270toWin.com. Retrieved July 1, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Nicole Galloway". Ballotpedia. Retrieved July 1, 2024.
  11. ↑ "Missouri | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved July 1, 2024.
  12. 1 2 "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  13. 1 2 "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  14. 1 2 "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  15. 1 2 "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  16. ↑ Jones, Dustin (January 20, 2023). "Hawley on the ballot: The 2024 Senate elections are already getting competitive". KCUR 89.3. NPR. Retrieved May 22, 2023.
  17. ↑ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC. Retrieved March 31, 2023.
  18. ↑ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  19. 1 2 3 "2024 Election United States Senate - Missouri". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  20. 1 2 3 "Missouri Election Results - Primary Election August 6, 2024". Missouri Secretary of State.
  21. ↑ Otterbein, Holly (January 6, 2023). "The first Democrat emerges to take on Josh Hawley". POLITICO. Retrieved January 6, 2023.
  22. ↑ "SOS, Missouri - Elections: Offices Filed in Candidate Filing". s1.sos.mo.gov. Retrieved March 27, 2024.
  23. ↑ Southey, Stephanie (January 16, 2023). "Columbia activist announces bid for U.S. Senate". KOMU-TV. Retrieved January 16, 2023.
  24. ↑ Rosenbaum, Jason (July 9, 2023). "Democratic state Sen. Karla May will enter Missouri's U.S. Senate contest". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved July 9, 2023.
  25. ↑ "Wesley Bell announces run against Cori Bush for Congress". ksdk.com. October 30, 2023. Retrieved October 30, 2023.
  26. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Holleman, Joe (June 13, 2023). "Lucas Kunce boasts endorsements from some prominent St. Louis pols". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  27. ↑ Desrochers, Daniel (August 6, 2024). "Lucas Kunce wins Democratic Senate primary in Missouri, will take on Josh Hawley". The Kansas City Star. Archived from the original on August 14, 2024. Retrieved September 8, 2026. Kunce's support from labor unions and prominent Missouri Democrats like Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, from Kansas City, helped Kunce lock down the nomination that evaded him two years ago.
  28. ↑ Kander, Jason (December 12, 2023). "Josh Hawley is vulnerable in next year's Senate election. Even Donald Trump knows it". Kansas City Star. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
  29. ↑ Holleman, Joe (March 30, 2023). "Former Missouri lieutenant governor endorses Lucas Kunce for US Senate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  30. ↑ Drebes, Dave (June 13, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Sensible Missouri, Schmitt Speech, AirBnB Lobbyist, Kunce Endorsements, Lovasco Hits SCCRCC and more". MOScout. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
  31. ↑ Rowden, Tim (June 19, 2023). "Missouri AFL-CIO backs Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved June 19, 2023.
  32. ↑ Holleman, Joe (August 29, 2023). "Lucas Kunce fires up St. Louis-area crowd, including local politicians". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  33. ↑ Drebes, Dave (June 28, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Parson to Swing Budget Axe? Massage Tax IP? Wood Retires (Again), Nixa's Book Challenge Committee, and more". MoScout. Retrieved June 28, 2023.
  34. 1 2 Rosenbaum, Jason (July 20, 2023). "Missouri Democrats debate whether U.S. Senate primary is a help or hindrance". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
  35. ↑ Holleman, Joe (June 15, 2023). "St. Louis County councilwoman backs Lucas Kunce in U.S. Senate race". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved June 19, 2023.
  36. ↑ Holleman, Joe (October 30, 2023). "Lucas Kunce's US Senate bid gets more St. Louis County Council support". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved November 16, 2023.
  37. ↑ Drebes, Dave (May 12, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Final Day of Session, New PAC, White for Kunce, and more". MOScout. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  38. ↑ Krull, Ryan (June 7, 2023). "MISSOURI NEWS: Missouri Senate Race Could Draw Big Money, National Attention". Riverfront Times. Retrieved June 10, 2023.
  39. 1 2 Rosenbaum, Jason (June 7, 2023). "St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell announces U.S. Senate run". KWMU St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved June 10, 2023.
  40. 1 2 Swift, Jim (March 14, 2023). "Challenger to Hawley: Quit Your 'Fake Populism'". The Bulwark. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  41. ↑ Kurtz, Josh (July 10, 2024). "Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks". Maryland Matters. Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
  42. 1 2 Klein, Howie (January 6, 2023). "January 6— Lucas Kunce Launches His Campaign For Senate. What Better Day To Start The Process Of Removing Insurrectionist Josh Hawley?". Blue America PAC. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  43. ↑ Drebes, Dave (January 19, 2024). "MOScout Daily Update: Senate Sickness, Trump Contra Roe, Pro-Choice Campaign Raises Over $1M, Burly's $400K, Kunce Chugs Along, and More". MOScout. Retrieved January 21, 2024.
  44. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "Missouri Fire Fighters endorse Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. June 5, 2023. Retrieved June 5, 2023.
  45. ↑ Drebes, Dave (May 25, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Chrismer in Senate '23, Keller to Lead Pro-Richey PAC, Club For Growth Coming, Kunce Gets Fire Fighters, and More". MOScout. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  46. ↑ PFEM 2665 (@pfem2665) (August 30, 2023). "On Monday night members of @PFEM2665 continued our strong tradition of political action as we rallied for US Senate candidate @LucasKunceMO alongside @iaffdist2 VP Mark Woolbright. Thanks for leading the charge, brothers and sisters!". Twitter. Retrieved September 19, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  47. ↑ "Insulators Local 1 endorses Lucas Kunce for Senate". Sun Times News Online. March 30, 2023. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  48. ↑ Rowden, Tim (September 8, 2023). "Labor, local political leaders rally behind Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". Retrieved June 5, 2024.
  49. 1 2 "Three unions endorse 'warrior for working people' Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. April 10, 2023. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  50. ↑ Drebes, David (April 23, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Big Bill Pile-up Comind, MATA's GOP Picks?, Kunce's Stride Toward Nomination, and more". MOScout. Retrieved April 23, 2023.
  51. ↑ Drebes, David (May 5, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Gardner Resigns, Brattin Protests, KC Building Trades for Kunce and more". MOScout. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  52. ↑ Hollemann, Joe (June 7, 2023). "Kunce secures major labor endorsement in Missouri race for US Senate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved June 7, 2023.
  53. ↑ Holleman, Joe (June 26, 2023). "St. Louis County Council chair endorses Lucas Kunce over Wesley Bell". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
  54. ↑ Youngblood, Kaitlin (October 11, 2023). "SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council Announces Endorsement of Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". SEIU Healthcare. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  55. ↑ "UFCW 655 endorses Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. May 22, 2023. Retrieved May 22, 2023.
  56. ↑ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". January 10, 2024. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  57. ↑ Drebes, Dave (November 17, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Firefighters for Bailey, Imagining the Rowden Campaign, Marijuana Drama, and More - Kunce Nabs Freedom Inc". MOScout. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
  58. ↑ Indivisible St. Louis (April 10, 2023). "We're starting to see some serious MO-mentum, Deborah! [...] Lucas Kunce is ready to stand up and serve Missourians in the U.S. Senate. So, if you're ready to elect a real warrior for working people to Missouri's U.S. Senate seat, will you chip in $10 or ANY amount to our grassroots campaign today?". Facebook. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  59. ↑ "Lucas Kunce". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  60. ↑ Holleman, Joe (September 22, 2023). "Lucas Kunce gets endorsement from national conservation group". STLtoday.com. Archived from the original on September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  61. ↑ Timotija, Filip (June 6, 2024). "VoteVets endorsing Josh Hawley's challenger Lucas Kunce in Missouri Senate race". The Hill.
  62. ↑ Rosenbaum, Jason (July 9, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Karla May promises to bring fight to Hawley". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
  63. ↑ Palermo, Gregg (August 31, 2023). "Notebook: What Illinois voters think of a Pritzker presidential bid; Kunce rallies in St. Louis". Spectrum News Local. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  64. 1 2 Maxwell, Mark (June 28, 2023). "North St. Louis County mayors, Kansas City prosecutor back Wesley Bell's bid for U.S. Senate". KSDK 5. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
  65. ↑ Bayless, Kacen (June 28, 2023). "Jean Peters Baker endorses STL County prosecutor Bell's campaign against Josh Hawley". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
  66. ↑ "MOScout Weekender: Poll Shows Kunce Leading May, Toss-up Dem Gov Race, Most Dems Sticking with Biden - Hallway Index on Trump and more…". Missouri Scout. July 13, 2024. Retrieved September 14, 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  67. ↑ "MOScout Weekender: Eigel Preps Announcement - Poll on Dem Statewides - Hallway on GOP AG - WWTW and more...". Missouri Scout. July 15, 2023. Retrieved September 14, 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  68. 1 2 "UNOFFICIAL Candidate Filing List". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  69. ↑ Holleman, Joe (August 31, 2023). "Joplin businessman running as independent for US Senate in Missouri". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  70. ↑ Keller, Rudi (November 1, 2024). "Josh Hawley, Lucas Kunce trade insults in only televised debate of Missouri Senate race • Missouri Independent". Missouri Independent. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  71. ↑ "Hawley, Kunce clash in Halloween night debate for Missouri's U.S. Senate seat". spectrumlocalnews.com. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  72. ↑ "Hawley and Kunce trade barbs in Missouri U.S. Senate debate 5 days before election". STLPR. November 1, 2024. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  73. ↑ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  74. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  75. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Archived from the original on May 2, 2025. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  76. ↑ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. May 25, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  77. ↑ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on November 1, 2024. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  78. ↑ "Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker throws his weight behind Missouri's Josh Hawley for Senate". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved October 12, 2024.
  79. ↑ "Missouri Farm Bureau PAC Endorses Josh Hawley for U.S. Senate". MOFB.org. February 27, 2024. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  80. ↑ Martinez, Crystal (October 22, 2024). "Lucas Kunce campaigns with Adam Kinzinger in Kansas City". Yahoo News. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  81. ↑ "Suppoissrt our Action Fund-endorsed candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Planned Parenthood Action Fund, Inc. Retrieved September 28, 2024.
  82. ↑ "Lucas Kunce for United States Senate". Kansas City Star. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  83. ↑ "Lucas Kunce for United States Senate". St. Louis Today. St Louis Dispatch. October 13, 2024. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  84. ↑ Falcon, Hannah (October 24, 2024). "Kunce, Hawley both receive endorsements from farmers in U.S. Senate race". KYTV. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  85. ↑ Barmeier, Elizabeth (October 18, 2024). "Andy Cohen campaigns for Lucas Kunce Friday in St. Louis as they visit firefighter, paramedics". Spectrum News. Maryland Heights. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  86. ↑ Szuch, Susan (August 19, 2024). "MSU alum, award-winning actor John Goodman voices campaign ad for Lucas Kunce". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  87. ↑ McGee, Jack (October 4, 2024). "Former U.S. Sen. John Danforth making a 'statement' with endorsement of Jared Young". Springfield Daily Citizen. Retrieved October 21, 2024.
  88. ↑ FiveThirtyEight
  89. ↑ TheHill/DDHQ
  90. ↑ Research Co.
  91. ↑ ActiVote
  92. ↑ GQR (D)
  93. ↑ Emerson College
  94. ↑ ActiVote
  95. ↑ Emerson College
  96. ↑ Change Research
  97. ↑ GQR Research (D)
  98. ↑ Remington Research Group (R)
  99. ↑ YouGov/Saint Louis University
  100. ↑ Emerson College
  101. ↑ Remington Research Group (R)
  102. ↑ Emerson College
  103. ↑ Show Me Victories (D)
  104. 1 2 Emerson College
  105. ↑ GQR Research (D)
  106. ↑ Ashcroft, Jay (December 5, 2024). "Grand Totals" (PDF). Secretary of State of Missouri. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 12, 2025. Retrieved September 5, 2026.
  107. ↑ Ashcroft, Jay (November 5, 2024). "Results by County" (PDF). Secretary of State of Missouri. Archived (PDF) from the original on November 12, 2025. Retrieved September 5, 2026.
  108. ↑ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved September 20, 2025.
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