The Spirit Awards will be announced tomorrow, though several titles will not be eligible. Anything that costs over $30 million is not eligible. From Netflix, these films:
- Maestro
- Society of the Snow
- Rustin
- Nyad
- The Killer
- They Cloned Tyrone
They also do “gender neutral,” just like the Gothams, which means, at least to me, they have knocked down a peg in terms of influence. Like seriously, why should we care if they eliminated an extra win in the acting categories? I’m trying to figure out a way to care. And I’m running short on answers.
Thankfully, the National Board of Review will not do such an insane thing and will have two winners in each performance category, which is much more fun for all of us.
What I’ve always liked about the National Board of Review is that they rest somewhere between the more mainstream film awards like the Oscars and the more niche film awards like the critics. Although these days there isn’t much of a difference anymore. The NBR used to be more like the Golden Globes once upon a time. They don’t do much virtue signaling with their awards. They had no problem awarding Top Gun: Maverick their Best Picture prize last year (and it was the film that should have won the top prize last year).
They tend to do a good job pushing a movie through, or a performance through, that isn’t making its mark in the punditry universe. This year, the consensus feels much more wide open than it did last year, so it will be interesting which way the NBR falls.
Most of the time, their Best Picture winner makes it into the Oscars for Best Picture, give or take a Da Five Bloods or A Most Violent Year. Shockingly, this was true even when the Oscars had five Best Picture contenders. Here are the films they’ve chosen over the past few decades:
2000 Quills
2001 Moulin Rouge
2002 The Hours
2003 Mystic River
2004 Finding Neverland
2005 Good Night, and Good Luck
2006 Letters from Iwo Jima
2007 No Country for Old Men
2008 Slumdog Millionaire
2009 Up in the Air
2010 The Social Network
2011 Hugo
2012 Zero Dark Thirty
2013 Her
2014 A Most Violent Year
2015 Mad Max: Fury Road
2016 Manchester by the Sea
2017 The Post
2018 Green Book
2019 The Irishman
2020 Da 5 Bloods
2021 Licorice Pizza
2022 Top Gun: Maverick
It’s less common for their winner to go on to win Best Picture, but as you can see, it does happen. There is no particular way to figure out what film will win. Who could have predicted Da 5 Bloods?
Here is the Best Actor history:
2000-Javier Bardem, Before Night Falls
2001-Billy Bob Thornton, Bandits/The Man Who Wasn’t There/ Monster’s Ball
2002 Campbell Scott, Roger Dodger
2003 Sean Penn, Mystic River
2004 Jamie Foxx, Ray
2005 Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
2006 Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
2007 George Clooney, Michael Clayton
2008 Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
2009 George Clooney, Up in the Air/ Morgan Freeman, Invictus
2010 Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
2011 George Clooney, The Descendants
2012 Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
2013 Bruce Dern, Nebraska
2014 Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year/Michael Keaton, Birdman
2015 Matt Damon, The Martian
2016 Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2017 Tom Hanks, The Post
2018 Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
2019 Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
2020 Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
2021 Will Smith, King Richard
2022 Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Their Best Actor track record is pretty good for both nominations and wins.
And Best Actress:
2000 Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
2001 Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball
2002 Julianne Moore, Far from Heaven
2003 Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
2004 Annette Bening, Being Julia
2005 Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
2006 Helen Mirren, The Queen
2007 Julie Christie, Away from Her
2008 Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
2009 Carey Mulligan, An Education
2010 Lesley Manville, Another Year
2011 Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
2012 Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
2013 Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
2014 Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2015 Brie Larson, Room
2016 Amy Adams, Arrival
2017 Meryl Streep, The Post
2018 Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
2019 Renée Zellweger, Judy
2020 Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
2021 Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
2022 Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Their Best Actress match-up is pretty strong, just one more than Best Actor.
As far as their top ten films go, they have a decent track record of matching titles, but I won’t go through them, just to lay out the numbers.
2022: 5/10 (including BP winner)
2021: 6/10 (did not pick CODA)
2020: 4/10 (including BP winner)
2019: 5/09 (did not choose Parasite)
2018: 3/8 (but Green Book won both)
2017: 5/9 (did not choose The Shape of Water)
2016: 6/9 (including Best Picture)
2015: 4/8 (including Best Picture)
2014: 4/8 (including Best Picture)
2013: 4/9 (including Best Picture)
2012: 6/9 (including Best Picture)
2011: 4/9 (including Best Picture)
2010: 5/10 (including Best Picture)
2009: 4/10 (including Best Picture)
2008: 3/5 (Slumdog won both)
2007: 2/5 (No Country won both)
2006: 4/5 (including Best Picture)
2005: 4/5 (including Best Picture)
2004: 4/5 (including Best Picture)
2003: 4/5 (including Best Picture)
2002: 4/5 (including Best Picture)
2001: 1/5
2000: 2/5 (including Best Picture)
Here are our predictions and the contest to follow:
Best Picture
Barbie — Clarence Moye
Killers of the Flower Moon — Marshall Flores
Maestro — Sasha Stone
Oppenheimer – Mark Johnson
Best Director
Bradley Cooper, Maestro — Stone
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer — Flores, Johnson
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon — Moye
Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers — Moye
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer — Stone, Flores, Johnson
Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon — Moye, Johnson
Carey Mulligan, Maestro — Stone
Emma Stone, Poor Things — Flores
Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer — Moye, Flores, Johnson
Ryan Gosling, Barbie — Stone
Supporting Actress
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple — Moye
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers — Stone, Flores, Johnson
Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall — Moye
Barbie — Stone, Johnson
Past Lives — Flores
Adapted Screenplay
Killers of the Flower Moon — Flores, Stone
American Fiction — Moye
Oppenheimer – Johnson
Clarence Moye’s Top Ten predictions:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Sasha Stone’s Top Ten predictions:
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Barbie
The Boys in the Boat
The Holdovers
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
May December
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Marshall Flores’ Top Ten predictions:
Air
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
May December
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Ryan Adams’s Top Ten predictions:
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon]
May December
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Saltburn
Zone of Interest
Mark Johnson’s Top Ten predictions:
Air
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
And the contest! Thanks to Marshall for putting together the form:
