The next United Kingdom general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029, and all 57 Scottish Westminster seats will be contested. The election will determine the composition of the House of Commons, which in turn determines the government of the United Kingdom.
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On or before 15 August 2029
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All 57 Scottish seats in the House of Commons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Date
editThe Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met, unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister. Polling day must occur no more than 25 working days following dissolution.[1]
Opinion polling
editAll polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure and sample size rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2024 general election on 4 July 2024 to the present day.
Target seats
editIdentified potential target seats using calculation of requiring 5% swing or less from winning party at the 2024 general election for the seat to change hands. For those parties with no target seats using this calculation shows the three seats with smallest swing required for that party to win a seat. Each constituency is linked to data about that constituency that includes details about the 2024 general election result.
Labour
edit| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2024 | Swing required | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dundee Central[2] | Scottish National Party | 0.87% | |
| 2 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry[3] | Scottish National Party | 0.97% | |
| 3 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey[4] | Scottish National Party | 1.05% | |
| 4 | Aberdeen North[5] | Scottish National Party | 2.09% | |
| 5 | Aberdeen South[6] | Scottish National Party | 4.05% | |
| 6 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale[7] | Conservative Party | 5.49% | |
Scottish National Party
edit| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2024 | Swing required | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gordon and Buchan[8] | Conservative Party | 1.00% | |
| 2 | Dumfries and Galloway[9] | Conservative Party | 1.02% | |
| 3 | Stirling and Strathallan[10] | Labour Party | 1.40% | |
| 4 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire[11] | Liberal Democrats | 2.25% | |
| 5 | West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine[12] | Conservative Party | 3.51% | |
| 6 | Livingston[13] | Labour Party | 3.93% | |
| 7 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh[14] | Labour Party | 4.08% | |
| 8 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife[15] | Labour Party | 4.09% | |
| 9 | North Ayrshire and Arran[16] | Labour Party | 4.20% | |
| 10 | Glasgow South West[17] | Labour Party | 4.60% | |
| 11 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale[7] | Conservative Party | 4.80% | |
| 12 | Glasgow South[18] | Labour Party | 4.90% | |
| 13 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch[19] | Labour Party | 5.06% | |
| 14 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock[20] | Labour Party | 5.07% | |
| 15 | Glasgow North[21] | Labour Party | 5.09% | |
| 16 | Glasgow East[22] | Labour Party | 5.34% | |
| 17 | Falkirk[23] | Labour Party | 5.86% | |
Liberal Democrats
edit| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2024 | Swing required | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber[24] | Scottish National Party | 9.16% | |
| 2 | Gordon and Buchan[25] | Conservative Party | 14.22% | |
| 3 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine[26] | Conservative Party | 15.62% | |
Conservative
edit| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2024 | Swing required | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey[4] | Scottish National Party | 1.08% | |
| 2 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East[27] | Scottish National Party | 1.23% | |
| 3 | Perth and Kinross-shire[28] | Scottish National Party | 4.12% | |
| 4 | Aberdeen South[6] | Scottish National Party | 4.22% | |
| 5 | Angus and Perthshire Glens[29] | Scottish National Party | 5.14% | |
Greens
edit| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2024 | Swing required | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dumfries and Galloway[9] | Conservative Party | 13.44% | |
| 2 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey[4] | Scottish National Party | 14.25% | |
| 3 | Glasgow South[18] | Labour Party | 14.35% | |
Reform UK
edit| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2024 | Swing required | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale[7] | Conservative Party | 15.69% | |
| 2 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock[20] | Labour Party | 17.67% | |
| 3 | Aberdeen South[30] | Scottish National Party | 17.81% | |
MPs not seeking re-election
edit| MP | Constituency | First elected | Affiliation | Date announced | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
See also
editNotes
edit- ↑ Dave Doogan leads the SNP in the House of Commons.
References
edit- ↑ "Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022". www.legislation.gov.uk.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Dundee Central". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Arbroath and Broughty Ferry". 24 July 2024.
- 1 2 3 "Result of 2024 GE Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Aberdeen North". 24 July 2024.
- 1 2 "Result of 2024 GE Aberdeen South". 24 July 2024.
- 1 2 3 "Result of 2024 GE Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Gordon and Buchan". 24 July 2024.
- 1 2 "Result of 2024 GE Dumfries and Galloway". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Stirling and Strathallan". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Livingston". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Edinburgh East and Musselburgh". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Glenrothes and Mid Fife". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE North Ayrshire and Arran". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Glasgow South West". 24 July 2024.
- 1 2 "Result of 2024 GE Glasgow South". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch". 24 July 2024.
- 1 2 "Result of 2024 GE Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Glasgow North". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Glasgow East". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Falkirk". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Gordon and Buchan". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Aberdeenshire West and Kincardin". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Aberdeenshire North and Moray East". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Perth and Kinross-shire". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Angus and Perthshire Glens". 24 July 2024.
- ↑ "Result of 2024 GE Aberdeen Sout". 24 July 2024.