2029 Western Australian state election
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10 March 2029[a]
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All 59 seats in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly and all 37 members in the Western Australian Legislative Council 30 Assembly seats are needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2029 Western Australian state election is to be held on 10 March 2029[3][a], where all 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 37 members in the Legislative Council will be contested.
Background
[edit]The 2025 Western Australian state election saw Labor win one of the largest majorities of any state or territory government, despite losing some seats from the previous election.[4]
The Liberal Party barely regained opposition status from the National Party, with seven seats compared to the latter's six.
After the election, the leader of the Liberal Party leading to the 2025 state election, Libby Mettam resigned, citing that she did not have the support of her party room to continue as leader.[5] This triggered a leadership election, where Basil Zempilas, who was elected in the 2025 election, and the former Lord Mayor of Perth was elected leader unopposed, with Mettam being elected as the Deputy Leader unopposed.[6]
Electoral system
[edit]Candidates are elected to single-member seats in the Legislative Assembly via full-preferential instant-runoff voting. In the Legislative Council, MLCs are elected on a single statewide ballot by Single Transferable Vote. Votes are cast under a semi-optional preferential form of STV using above-the-line voting. It requires electors to mark preferences for one or more preferred parties above the dividing line on the ballot paper, or at least 20 candidates below the dividing line.
Key dates
[edit]Elections are scheduled for the second Saturday of March every four years, in line with legislative changes made in 2011.[7]
While the Legislative Assembly has fixed four-year terms, the Governor of Western Australia may still dissolve the Assembly and call an election early on the advice of the Premier.[8]
Electoral pendulums
[edit]Pre-election pendulum
[edit]This is the pre-election pendulum, based off the results of the 2025 state election.[9]
| Non-government seats | |||
| Marginal | |||
| Kalamunda | Adam Hort | LIB | 0.1 |
| Churchlands | Basil Zempilas | LIB | 1.1 |
| Murray-Wellington | David Bolt | LIB | 1.7 |
| Cottesloe | Sandra Brewer | LIB | 5.6 v IND |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Carine | Liam Staltari | LIB | 7.6 |
| Safe | |||
| Vasse | Libby Mettam | LIB | 13.4 |
| Crossbench seats | |||
| Warren-Blackwood | Bevan Eatts | NAT | 1.8 |
| Nedlands | Jonathan Huston | IND | 2.7 v ALP |
| Albany | Scott Leary | NAT | 6.3 |
| Secret Harbour | Luke Herdegen | ONP | 7.1 v ALP |
| Mid-West | Shane Love | NAT | 13.7 v LIB |
| Geraldton | Kirrilee Warr | NAT | 14.1 |
| Central Wheatbelt | Lachlan Hunter | NAT | 23.3 |
| Roe | Peter Rundle | NAT | 25.1 v LIB |
Opinion polling
[edit]Voting intention
[edit]
| Date | Polling firm | Sample size |
Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | ONP | Others | ALP | LIB | |||
| 6–25 Aug 2026 | DemosAU[10] | 990 | 33% | 21% | 4% | 12% | 21% | 9% | 54% | 46% |
| 29 May – 11 Jun 2026 | DemosAU[11] | 1,015 | 33% | 23% | 3% | 12% | 18% | 11% | 53% | 47% |
| 12–23 Feb 2026 | DemosAU[12] | 969 | 36% | 21% | 4% | 13% | 17% | 9% | 57% | 43% |
| 10–26 Nov 2025 | DemosAU[13] | 1,012 | 41% | 30% | 6% | 13% | N/a | 10% | 56% | 44% |
| 8 March 2025 | 8 March 2025 election | — | 41.4% | 28.0% | 5.2% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 10.3% | 57.1% | 42.9% |
Preferred Premier
[edit]Notes
[edit]- 1 2 According to the Electoral Act 1907 (WA), all elections are held on the second Saturday of March, which is 10 March 2029.
- ↑ The district of Secret Harbour was lost to One Nation at the by-election on 30 August following the resignation of former minister Paul Papalia.[1]
- ↑ In June 2026, Jonathan Huston (MLA for Nedlands) left the Liberal Party and became an independent.[2]
References
[edit]- ↑ "Secret Harbour By-election 2026". www.abc.net.au. 2026-08-29. Retrieved 2026-08-29.
- ↑ Bourke, Keane (25 June 2026). "Nedlands MP Jonathan Huston quits WA Liberal Party". ABC News. Archived from the original on 25 June 2026. Retrieved 7 July 2026.
- ↑ "State Elections Information". State Elections Information. Western Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 25 February 2026.
- ↑ Beaumont, Adrian (9 March 2025). "Labor wins third successive landslide in WA election". The Conversation. Retrieved 23 February 2026.
- ↑ Shine, Rhiannon (21 March 2025). "Libby Mettam calls time on two-year stint as WA Liberals leader, as party seeks to kickstart rebuild". ABC News. Archived from the original on 21 March 2025. Retrieved 21 March 2025.
- ↑ Bourke, Keane (25 March 2025). "Basil Zempilas becomes leader of WA Liberals, with Libby Mettam as deputy". ABC News. Retrieved 23 February 2026.
- ↑ "State Elections". Western Australia Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 20 April 2021. Retrieved 26 April 2021.
- ↑ Electoral and Constitution Amendment Act 2011 (WA) s 5
- ↑ "2025 WA State Election Results and Statistics" (PDF). 2025 WA State Election – Results and Statistics. Western Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 25 February 2026.
- 1 2 "DemosAU WA Poll August 2026" (PDF). DemosAU. Retrieved 27 August 2026.
- 1 2 "DemosAU WA Poll June 2026" (PDF). DemosAU. Retrieved 27 August 2026.
- 1 2 "DemosAU WA Poll Feb 2026" (PDF). DemosAU. Retrieved 24 February 2026.
- 1 2 "WA Poll Nov 2025" (PDF). DemosAU. Retrieved 24 February 2026.