The Midterms Are Unlikely To Alter the U.S.’s Fiscal Trajectory
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analysis

The Midterms Are Unlikely To Alter the U.S.’s Fiscal Trajectory

The Nov. 3 elections and the resulting political gridlock under a divided Congress will sustain large fiscal deficits and rising national debt, though broader market instability remains unlikely.

Oct 13, 2026

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OSINT
PREMIUM

Oct 13, 2026

Iran Is Fortifying Nuclear Sites and Rallying Its People for a Return to Fighting

Iran is fortifying its defenses, rallying loyalists, and threatening a wider, harsher response against the US and its Gulf allies as it prepares for potential American attacks after the midterms and seeks to deter them.

Oct 13, 2026

Malawi Motorists Sleep at Petrol Stations as Fuel Shortages Return

Motorists are sleeping overnight at petrol stations and taxi drivers have been left without ​work as crippling fuel shortages grip Malawi ‌once again. The situation improved temporarily after President Peter Mutharika ​won the ​vote and raised ⁠pump prices, but worsened again after the Iran war began in late February.

Oct 13, 2026

Morocco's Biggest Party Strikes Deal to Form Coalition Government

Morocco's largest political party is joining forces with three rivals to form a coalition government, pledging a "shared reformist vision" as it bids to address rising youth anger over economic inequality and corruption.

Forecasts
PREMIUM

Sep 28, 2026

2026 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Elections, escalating conflicts, tight energy markets and intensifying trade competition will result in shifting constraints and high geopolitical risk.

Jun 29, 2026

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast

A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter.

Mar 30, 2026

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast

The second quarter will test global resilience as lingering conflicts and energy shocks converge to heighten economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility.

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