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Big Numbers and Induction in the Case for Extraterrestrial Intelligence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

Roy Mash
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Abstract

Arguments favoring the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence nearly always contain an overt appeal to big numbers, often combined with a covert reliance on generalization from a single instance. In this paper I examine both motifs, and consider whether big numbers might actually make palatable otherwise implausible single-case inductions. In the end, the dispute between believers and skeptics is seen to boil down to a conflict of intuitions which can barely be engaged, let alone resolved, given our present state of knowledge.

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 60 , Issue 2 , June 1993 , pp. 204 - 222
Copyright
Copyright © Philosophy of Science Association 1993

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Footnotes

†

For conversation and comment I thank Kent Bach, Bob Bardell, Kevin Brooks, John Burke, Hal Forsey, Don Provence, Peter Radcliff, and two anonymous referees from this journal.

‡

Send reprint requests to the author, 2100 Danberry Lane, San Rafael, CA 94903, USA.

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